TÜRKÇE
ENGLISH
Information
| Code | MG5806 |
| Name | Probability Models |
| Term | 2022-2023 Academic Year |
| Term | Spring |
| Duration (T+A) | 4-0 (T-A) (17 Week) |
| ECTS | 8 ECTS |
| National Credit | 4 National Credit |
| Teaching Language | Türkçe |
| Level | Doktora Dersi |
| Type | Normal |
| Mode of study | Yüz Yüze Öğretim |
| Catalog Information Coordinator | Dr. Öğr. Üyesi MERT DEMİRCİOĞLU |
| Course Instructor |
1 |
Course Goal / Objective
Daily business life easy analysis of relevant data and potentially used to make the application of probabilistic analysis methods and to learn to come to the level to use.
Course Content
Beginning with introductory topics probability, game theory, stochastic inventory control models, probabilistic dynamic modeling, queuing theory, an understanding of simulation and forecasting models and includes their application.
Course Precondition
None
Resources
Winston, W. L., Goldberg, J. B. (2004). Operations research: applications and algorithms (Vol. 3). Belmont: Thomson Brooks/Cole
Notes
Yöneylem Araştırması (6. Basımdan Çeviri) Hamdy A. Taha Literatür
Course Learning Outcomes
| Order | Course Learning Outcomes |
|---|---|
| LO01 | To understand the possibilities and basic probability information |
| LO02 | Game theory understand and interpret their application to use |
| LO03 | stochastic inventory control models understand and interpret their application to use |
| LO04 | queuing theory, simulation understand and interpret their application to use |
| LO05 | forecasting models and stochastic dynamic modeling to understand and interpret their application to use |
Relation with Program Learning Outcome
| Order | Type | Program Learning Outcomes | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLO01 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Explains the basic theoretical models for business field | |
| PLO02 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Lists and identifies the theories that will contribute to the development of scientific methods and tools used in business | |
| PLO03 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Has an understanding of the legal and ethical issues faced by the Business profession | |
| PLO04 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Explains how to interpret the findings as a result of models used in business methods. | 4 |
| PLO05 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Creates sufficient knowledge to find a solution to the problems met by business | 3 |
| PLO06 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Contributes to business by following the basic steps of the methods used in business | |
| PLO07 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Apply the application of business management methods. | |
| PLO08 | Bilgi - Kuramsal, Olgusal | Encourages taking responsibility, claiming the lead and working effectively in a team and / or individually. | |
| PLO09 | Beceriler - Bilişsel, Uygulamalı | Keeps track of the latest developments in the field as a recognition of the need for lifelong learning and constant renewal | |
| PLO10 | Beceriler - Bilişsel, Uygulamalı | Utilizes scientific sources in the field, collect the data, synthesizes the obtained information and presents the outcomes effectively | 3 |
| PLO11 | Yetkinlikler - Bağımsız Çalışabilme ve Sorumluluk Alabilme Yetkinliği | Has a good command of Turkish, as well as at least one another foreign language in accordance with the requirements of academic and work life | |
| PLO12 | Yetkinlikler - Öğrenme Yetkinliği | Develops and implements new research methods that will contribute to the development of the business field | 4 |
| PLO13 | Yetkinlikler - Öğrenme Yetkinliği | Develops new guidelines for the business managers’ decision making processes by researching on sub-disciplines of the business field. | 3 |
| PLO14 | Yetkinlikler - Öğrenme Yetkinliği | Forms the basis for the decision-making process by researching on the science of business field |
Week Plan
| Week | Topic | Preparation | Methods |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Introduction to Probability | Reading related topics | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Tartışma |
| 2 | Probability Problems | Reading related topics | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Tartışma |
| 3 | Introduction to Game Theory | Reading related topics | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Tartışma |
| 4 | game theory | Reading related topics | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Tartışma |
| 5 | probability inventory control models | Reading related topics | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Tartışma |
| 6 | probabilistic stock control models solution method | Reading related topics | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Tartışma |
| 7 | probability dynamic modeling | Reading related topics | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Tartışma |
| 8 | Mid-Term Exam | Exam Preparation | Ölçme Yöntemleri: Yazılı Sınav |
| 9 | queuing theory | Reading related topics | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Tartışma |
| 10 | queuing theory problems | Reading related topics | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Tartışma |
| 11 | Introduction to Simulation | Reading related topics | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Tartışma |
| 12 | Simulation Problems | Reading related topics | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Tartışma |
| 13 | Simulation Applications | Reading related topics | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Tartışma |
| 14 | Introduction to Estimation Models | Reading related topics | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Tartışma |
| 15 | estimation models | Reading related topics | Öğretim Yöntemleri: Anlatım, Tartışma |
| 16 | Term Exams | Exam Preparation | Ölçme Yöntemleri: Yazılı Sınav |
| 17 | Term Exams | Exam Preparation | Ölçme Yöntemleri: Yazılı Sınav |
Student Workload - ECTS
| Works | Number | Time (Hour) | Workload (Hour) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Course Related Works | |||
| Class Time (Exam weeks are excluded) | 14 | 4 | 56 |
| Out of Class Study (Preliminary Work, Practice) | 14 | 8 | 112 |
| Assesment Related Works | |||
| Homeworks, Projects, Others | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| Mid-term Exams (Written, Oral, etc.) | 1 | 12 | 12 |
| Final Exam | 1 | 24 | 24 |
| Total Workload (Hour) | 212 | ||
| Total Workload / 25 (h) | 8,48 | ||
| ECTS | 8 ECTS | ||